Strategy

1 June 2018

The last few days we have sailed north as much as possible. There was no wind and we had to use the engine. However, the wind has returned and we are sailing again. But we have a choice to make, or a gamble, it depends how you look at it… 
We have a south-southwesterly wind, the first signs of a low-pressure area arriving. We have two options: sailing below it or try sail behind it. 
The forecast says now that it will move slowly to Biscay and then pull south. We could sail below it and sail east quickly. With a bit of luck, we will pass the center to get a push north. But if this low-pressure area really shifts south, it is very likely that there will be a strong northern wind that we have to beat against. In that case we have to sail deep into Biscay to get close to the shore to be able to sail up again and I don’t even want to think how difficult it will be to pas Ouessant (west coast of Brittany). 
That’s why we decided to go in the ‘wrong’ direction and we sail north. We will be at the back of the depression. There is more wind there and when the cold front has passed the wind will come from the north. Then we will sail east hoping to stay north of the center. If the low-pressure area moves south the northern wind will stay, but we will be a lot more north with option 1 and much more west. We will have a lot more water around us which will give us more possibilities to decide on our course. 
So, for the next 18 hours we will sail north and then sail close-hauled as much as possible to stay north of the center. In a few days we will know whether we made the right decision.